America’s Voice
Immigration Solutions Now

How Will Latinos Impact the 2010 Census and 2010 Elections?

How Do They View the Parties and the Issue of Immigration Reform?

RESOURCES:

December 2009 Nationwide Poll of Latino voters

Power of the Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections 

The New Constituents: How Latinos Will Shape Congressional Apportionment After the 2010 Census

SUMMARY:

New polling and updated analysis by America’s Voice and America’s Voice Education Fund show that Latino voters are poised to play a major role in politics in 2010 and beyond.  Following is a summary of the research’s key findings; complete versions of each report are available on the America’s Voice web site at www.americasvoiceonline.org.

DECEMBER 2009 POLL OF LATINO VOTERS

A newly released poll of 1,010 Latino voters in twelve key states by Bendixen & Amandi reveals how Latino voters view the two major political parties on the issue, and how this perception impacts their vote.  Among the findings:

• Immigration is a key issue for the Latino electorate.  While more respondents chose issues such as the economy and health care than immigration as their number one priority, 78% said the immigration issue is important to them and their family, including 51% who called it “very important.”  The issue is particularly salient among the 55% of respondents who were foreign-born; 84% of foreign-born voters called the immigration issue “important,” with 64% labeling it “very important.” 

• The vast majority of Latino voters support comprehensive immigration reform.  By a 77%-11% margin, respondents favored an immigration plan that would legalize undocumented workers over one that would force most of the undocumented population to leave the country.   

• Immigration reform is a personal issue to Latinos. Sixty-two percent of respondents reported having an undocumented friend, family member, neighbor, or co-worker.  For these respondents, immigration reform is not an abstract concept discussed on the nightly news, but a personal matter that requires a fair and humane solution.

• Latino voters still support President Obama, but give lower marks to his performance on immigration thus far.  While President Obama retains support among Latino voters, with 65% of respondents describing his job performance as “excellent” or “good,” his marks on immigration issues are less impressive.  Half of respondents said President Obama has done a “mediocre” or “bad” job on immigration issues, while just 40% called his performance on immigration “excellent” or “good.

• Still, Latino voters trust Obama to do the right thing on immigration, in stark contrast to their feelings about Republicans in Congress.  While Latino voters may give President Obama mixed marks on immigration issues thus far, 71% of respondents still trusted him to “do the right thing” on immigration issues vs. 20% who did not.  Trust in Obama eclipsed voters’ trust in congressional Democrats, who were trusted by 62% and not trusted by 27%.  Notably, 64% of respondents did not trust Republican Members of Congress on immigration issues, while 24% did. 

• Latinos are poised to make a difference in November.  While this survey was conducted a year before the next election, and a lot can change in that time frame, 73% of respondents said they were very likely to vote in November 2010, and 20% said they were somewhat likely.  Fully 65% said they were more likely to support generic Democratic candidates for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, while 20% said they would vote Republican and 15% were undecided.  However, 72% of Latino voters said they would not even consider voting for a candidate whose stance on immigration reform was to try and deport most undocumented immigrants.

Power of the Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections

This previously issued report, updated to reflect the results of early primaries, analyzes trends in Latino voting behavior and the impact these voters will have on competitive races in 2010.  While pundits often assume that Latino voters only matter in areas that are solidly Democratic, this report shows that they are poised to influence a number of battleground races in congressional districts and states, across the political and geographic map. 

In 2008, nearly ten million Latinos voted—a growth of about 2.5 million voters compared to 2004 and nearly four million since 2000.  Many of these new voters are foreign-born, naturalized citizens, who comprise 40% of the total Latino vote.  Now, nearly one in five Congressional Districts (79 in total, including 54 Democratic seats) is at least 25% Latino.  Latino voters are also spreading out into new states and areas, and will play a key role in more than forty hotly contested congressional and gubernatorial races in twelve states this cycle. 

Specifically, the America’s Voice report analyzes: 

• Trends in Latino Political Participation:  Although the Latino electorate has been trending Democratic for years, the Democratic Party does not necessarily hold a lock on these voters.  How both parties handle issues such as immigration reform will have a real impact on Latino political behavior, including turnout and party preference, in 2010 and beyond.  The 40% of Latino voters who are foreign-born, naturalized citizens have proven to be a crucial swing vote in recent elections, and the immigration issue is particularly important to them.  

• Races to Watch:  The report tracks 42 close races in 12 states—29 U.S. House races, eight U.S. Senate races and five gubernatorial races—and analyzes Latino voter percentages as well as the candidates’ positions on immigration reform.  All of these races are expected to be close, and Latino voters will make a decisive impact in choosing the winners.  Detailed profiles of the Latino electorate are included for each of these twelve states – AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IL, NV, NM, NY, PA, TX, and VA.

• Highest Latino % Congressional Districts:  The report also identifies the 79 Congressional Districts in which Latinos comprise at least 25% of the population, and a significant number of the voting electorate as well.  Fifty-four of these seats are currently controlled by Democratic Members of Congress and 25 are controlled by Republican Members of Congress.  These are districts were Latino voters have become a major factor, and where the electorate continues to grow and impact local and national politics.  

The New Constituents:  How Latinos Will Shape Congressional Apportionment After the 2010 Census

This previously-released report from America’s Voice Education Fund shows that the growth in the Latino population is helping increase power in Congress for certain states and stemming the tide of further losses in others.  

Based on new Census reapportionment projections by Election Data Services, Inc., the updated report shows that 18 states are poised to see changes in their congressional representation after Census 2010: Texas (+4), Arizona (+1), Florida (+1), Georgia (+1), Nevada (+1), South Carolina (+1), Utah (+1), and Washington (+1) are projected to gain House seats, while Ohio (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Louisiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), New Jersey (-1), New York (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1) are projected to lose House seats.  Evaluating these projections in light of Latino population growth in these states, the updated report makes it clear that Latino residents are playing an increasingly important role in states across the nation. 

Specifically, the report shows that:

• Latinos are settling in diverse regions of the country, and are helping to expand states’ political power in Congress.  Latinos represent 51% of population growth in the United States as a whole since 2000, and have driven growth in the states poised to gain House seats following the 2010 Census.  Increasingly, Latino voters are becoming influential beyond just the traditional immigrant “gateway” states and cities.  While Texas and Florida saw Latino voter turnout grow by 31% and 81% respectively between the 2000 and 2008 elections, Latino voter turnout between 2000 and 2008 exploded by 157% in South Carolina, 164% in Nevada, and 392% in Georgia. 

• States that are losing Congressional representation would have fared worse had Latinos not moved there in record numbers.  Latinos make up a combined 85% of the population growth in the ten states projected to lose a House seat following the 2010 Census, counteracting population losses among other groups and helping to stem further reductions in their power in Congress.  While their delegations are shrinking overall, Latino voters in these states will be gaining power as they expand their share of the electorate. 

• Not only is the Latino population growing overall, but the number of Latino voters is also increasing dramatically.  In 16 of the 18 states projected to gain or lose seats after the 2010 Census, the Latino share of the overall electorate increased between 2000 and 2008.  In six of the eight states projected to gain seats, and in all of the 10 states projected to lose seats, Latinos made up a greater share of the overall electorate in 2008 than they did in 2000. 

For more information, please see complete versions of these reports (same as above).

December 2009 Nationwide Poll of Latino voters

Power of the Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections 

The New Constituents: How Latinos Will Shape Congressional Apportionment After the 2010 Census